On September 11, the 2026 Atlantic season passed the latest date for a first hurricane in the satellite era, according to the season’s running record. Ten days later it became the first season in 112 years to reach September 21 without a single hurricane. As of September 25, Tropical Storms Fay and Gonzalo were churning in the open Atlantic and the basin still had not produced a hurricane. Colorado State University had trimmed its forecast toward a below-normal season as early as June, citing El Niño.
That El Niño is the other half of the story. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a very strong event this fall and winter at greater than 90% in its September 10 discussion. Research published in Nature Geoscience found that spring hail and tornadoes tend to be less frequent in the southern central U.S. during El Niño, while Florida tends to see the opposite, with stormier El Niño winters. “Tends to” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. For where that leaves storm markets next year, read our forecast piece, Storm Markets Are Moving East.
This post is about something you control: the money already sitting in your 2026 files. A quiet fall is rare, and it is the best window you will get to collect it.
Why the lull is worth real money
Most roofing companies close the year with a pile of claims that are 90% done: roof on, crew paid, last check stuck behind a missing invoice, a stalled supplement, or a holdback nobody requested.
Say a roofer in Tulsa finished 40 insurance roofs this year and the carrier held back an average of $3,500 in recoverable depreciation on each. That is $140,000 that only moves when someone sends the right paperwork. Add a dozen supplements stalled at “pending review” and the number gets bigger. None of it is new work. It is work you already did and have not been paid for.
In a busy year, that pile gets buried under new leads. This year you have time.
Step 1: Audit every open file
Pull a list of every insurance job with a date of loss in 2025 or 2026 that is not fully paid. Then sort each one into a bucket:
- Supplement submitted, no response. Note the date sent and the last follow-up.
- Supplement approved, revised estimate not received. The carrier said yes, but the paperwork has not caught up.
- Built but not invoiced. The roof is done and nobody sent the final invoice or completion documents.
- Invoiced, depreciation not released. The documents went out, but the holdback check has not arrived.
- Items found during tear-off, not yet supplemented. Rotted decking, a second layer, missing ice barrier.
- Disputed or denied. A carrier position you disagree with, or a coverage question.
That last bucket needs a note of caution. A disagreement over the scope or the price of the work is a supplement question. A disagreement over whether the policy covers something is a coverage question, and coverage decisions belong to the carrier. Where the homeowner wants someone to contest coverage, that is a job for a licensed public adjuster or an attorney, not the roofer. Our roofer vs. public adjuster breakdown by state shows where the line sits.
Step 2: Find the depreciation deadline on every file
Recoverable depreciation is the gap between the replacement cost and the actual cash value the carrier paid up front. The homeowner gets it once the work is done and documented, but only if they claim it on time. Our recoverable depreciation guide covers the basics. Here is the part that matters in the fall.
The deadline lives in the policy’s loss-settlement condition, and it varies:
- The standard ISO homeowners form lets the insured take actual cash value first and then claim the rest, provided they notify the carrier “within 180 days after the date of loss” of their intent to repair or replace, as Insurance Journal’s Christopher Boggs explains. That is a notice deadline, not a deadline to finish the roof. Plenty of people mix the two up.
- Many carrier-written forms set their own windows. A common version requires the claim for depreciation, with proof of replacement, within two years of the date of loss.
- Some states set a floor. California, for example, bars a time limit of less than 12 months from the first actual cash value payment, or 36 months for losses tied to a declared state of emergency, with extensions for good-faith delays.
So there is no single number. Read the loss-settlement condition on each open claim, write the deadline on the job record as a date, and work the claims closest to expiring first, regardless of size.
While you are in the policy, check for an actual cash value endorsement or roof payment schedule. On those files there may be no holdback to collect at all.
Step 3: Build the closeout package before you invoice
The holdback does not release because the roof is finished. It releases because the carrier has proof the roof is finished and a final number to pay against. A clean closeout package usually includes:
- A final invoice that matches the approved scope line for line, with any approved supplement items shown separately.
- A certificate of completion signed by the homeowner, if your market or the carrier uses one.
- Photos of the completed work: every slope, ridge, vents, flashings, drip edge, and the cleaned-up site.
- Tear-off documentation for anything found once the old roof came off. Rotted decking needs photos of the damaged boards, a count or square footage, and ideally a shot with a tape measure. A second layer needs photos of the cut edge showing both layers.
- The permit and final inspection, where your jurisdiction requires them.
Here is the order that matters: supplement the tear-off items before you send the final invoice. Invoice first and supplement second, and you have told the carrier the job is done at one number, then asked for more. The photo requirements checklist lists the exact shots carriers look for.
Step 4: Watch the clock on late and reopened supplements
Items you missed in the spring are not always gone, but the window to raise them can close.
Florida is the clearest example. Under section 627.70132 of the Florida Statutes, a new or reopened claim is barred unless notice is given within one year after the date of loss, and a supplemental claim (additional loss from the same peril, or costs incurred while completing repairs on an open claim) must be noticed within 18 months. A Florida roof damaged in a spring 2025 storm is already near or past both lines.
Other states leave the timing to the policy, and policies differ. The practical rule for every market: if a file has an item you believe was missed, raise it now, in writing, with the documentation attached, rather than waiting for a slow week that may never come.
Step 5: Check reporting windows and suit limits
Two more clocks run on every claim. Some policies require notice of a wind or hail loss within a set window, often 180 days or one year from the date of loss. Many also include a suit-limitation clause that caps the time to file a lawsuit, typically one or two years. Our post on policy endorsements that kill a supplement walks through both.
You should not be advising homeowners on litigation, but you should know the dates, because a file that drifts past them can become uncollectable for reasons no supplement will fix. If a homeowner is heading toward a real dispute, tell them early that the deadline exists and point them to a licensed professional.
Step 6: Clean up your own data
Once the files are moving, spend an afternoon on your numbers. This is an internal review, for your eyes and your managers’, not for your website or social feeds.
- Which carriers took longest from supplement submission to revised estimate?
- Which line items came back denied most often, and what documentation was attached when they did?
- How many days, on average, passed between completing a roof and sending the final invoice?
- How many files had depreciation expire or come close?
The answers usually point to a process problem, not a carrier problem.
Step 7: Set up 2027 while it is quiet
The best time to fix your process is when nobody is waiting on it.
- Templates. Standard final invoice, certificate of completion, depreciation request cover letter, and supplement follow-up emails.
- Photo standards. One shot list, printed, in every truck. Train new hires on it before storm season, not during it.
- Adjuster meetings. Decide who attends, what they bring, and what they document. See our adjuster meeting guide.
- Policy review at intake. Pull the dec page and endorsements before the estimate is written, and record the depreciation deadline, reporting window and suit limit on day one.
- Staffing. If a surge hits in February, decide now whether supplements stay in-house or go out. Our outsourcing vs. in-house math at 30 jobs a month lays out the numbers.
The close-out checklist
Print this and work it top to bottom:
- List every insurance job with a balance still owed.
- Sort each into a bucket: pending supplement, approved but no revised estimate, built but not invoiced, invoiced but no depreciation, tear-off items not supplemented, disputed.
- Read the loss-settlement condition and write the depreciation deadline on each file as a date.
- Sort open depreciation by deadline and work the nearest dates first.
- Supplement tear-off items (decking, extra layers, code items) before final invoicing.
- Assemble the closeout package: final invoice, certificate of completion, completed-work photos, tear-off photos, permit.
- Follow up in writing on every supplement with no response in 30 days.
- Flag any file near a supplemental-claim, reporting or suit-limitation window, and tell the homeowner in writing.
- Refer coverage disputes to a licensed public adjuster or attorney.
- Run the internal data review: cycle times, denied items, invoice lag, expired holdbacks.
- Update templates, photo standards and your intake policy review before January.
Quick answers
How long do homeowners have to collect recoverable depreciation on a roof?
It depends on the policy and the state, from a 180-day notice window on the standard ISO form to two years on many carrier forms, with state minimums in places like California. Check the loss-settlement condition on each claim.
Should I invoice before or after supplementing tear-off items?
After. Supplement decking, extra layers and code items with photos first, then send a final invoice that matches the approved scope.
What is Florida’s deadline for a supplemental roof claim?
Under section 627.70132, notice of a supplemental claim must be given within 18 months after the date of loss. New and reopened claims have one year.
Can a roofer dispute a coverage denial for the homeowner?
No. Roofers can document damage and support the scope of work. Contesting coverage on the homeowner’s behalf is public adjusting in many states and belongs to a licensed public adjuster or attorney.
Is a quiet hurricane season a sign 2027 will be quiet too?
Not necessarily. El Niño tends to shift where severe weather shows up rather than switch it off. Our 2027 storm markets post covers the outlook.
Get paid for the roofs you already built
A slow fall is the season when the money from the busy one actually lands, provided somebody works the files. When the 2027 storms show up, you want your crew’s attention on new roofs, not on chasing 2026 checks.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, “ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions” (Sept. 10, 2026); WCAX, “First Atlantic hurricane season without hurricane by Sept. 21 in 112 years” (Sept. 21, 2026); WUFT, “Tropical Storm Gonzalo forms as historic Atlantic hurricane drought continues” (Sept. 25, 2026); Wikipedia, “2026 Atlantic hurricane season”; FOX 26 Houston, “Colorado State University updates 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast” (June 10, 2026); NOAA Climate.gov, “El Niño and La Niña affect spring tornadoes and hailstorms” (June 5, 2015), summarizing Allen, Tippett and Sobel, Nature Geoscience (2015); WUSF, “A ‘super’ El Niño could bring severe winter weather to Florida” (Sept. 22, 2026); Insurance Journal, “Replacement Cost and the 180-Day Limitation Myth” (Oct. 19, 2020); Matthiesen, Wickert & Lehrer, “Replacement Cost Value (RCV), Actual Cash Value (ACV), Holdbacks, and the Depreciation of Labor” (Mar. 22, 2023); Cal. Ins. Code § 2051.5; Fla. Stat. § 627.70132 (2026). This post is general information for roofers, not legal advice; the policy in front of you and your state’s law control.
Sitting on a stack of 2026 files with supplements that never closed? EOD’s roofing supplement services write and follow through on supplements for roofers, for 10% of the increase, no increase, no fee, no minimums. Send us a claim.
